Nixon’s the one

My big concern about the 2008 Republican gubernatorial stakes in Missouri was that Sarah Steelman would win the nomination. When the state treasurer lost the bitterly contested primary to US Rep. Kenny Hulshof, I sighed in relief. “Jay Nixon’s got it,” I said.

From the outset, Steelman was a candidate who should have appealed to the GOP base in Missouri. Anti-tax, anti-choice, anti-gay marriage, anti-immigration. Pro-mandatory Pledge of Allegiance recitation in schools. The official Republican apparatus favored Hulshof and tried to pressure Steelman out of the race. This helped underscore Steelman’s stance as a outsider unafraid to take on her own party. She blasted the congressman as one of those, you know, Washington types, while touting her own “Rolla values.” In the end, she lost to Hulshof by fewer than 18,000 votes.

Incidentally, it took Steelman a good five weeks to get around to endorsing Hulshof as the GOP nominee - and rather half-heartedly at that.

What are the odds that the Missouri GOP would like a do-over on that race? Hulshof has consistently trailed Attorney General Nixon in polls, and the chances of a major shift are all but nonexistent:

Democrat Jay Nixon, the state attorney general, enjoys a comfortable lead in a handful of major polls with anywhere from 52 to 56 percent of the vote. Hulshof trails badly, anywhere from 34 to 39 percent. Hulshof also trails in money. At the start of this month, Nixon had $3.2 million dollars to spend. Hulshof had $1.2 million. Nixon has out raised Hulshof almost two-to-one.

Ouch. A big problem for Hulshof is that he can be charitably described as nondescript. Basically, he’s this year’s Jim Talent: a reliable follower of the GOP party line - having voted with his colleagues 92.6% of the time in the previous Congress - but generally indistinguishable from the herd. If Hulshof was a color, it would be elephant gray. That serves him ill in a time when the national Republican brand has taken a severe beating. Couple that with wide concerns over the economic downturn, both nationally and here in Missouri - a topic on which Nixon has repeatedly labeled Hulshof as out of touch - and Hulshof finds himself at a decided disadvantage.

While it’s hard to say definitively that Steelman would have fared better as the Republican nominee, it’s tempting to imagine a pairing of Steelman and GOP veep nominee Sarah Palin in joint appearances in the heart of the Show Me State. “Sarah and Sarah” with families in tow, a current governor and a gubernatorial candidate, smiling and bolstering each other as feisty outsiders while throwing red meat to appreciative crowds. It’s too easy to visualize, isn’t it? Even apart from that, however, Steelman would likely have been viewed by conservatives as a fresh face, untainted by all that Washington stuff, with a greater claim on some levels to being an agent of change than Hulshof could ever manage.

It’s rather likely that Missouri Republicans missed a bet here. Too bad for them, eh? In the meantime, I am glad to see that my chosen candidate, Jay Nixon, seems headed for the governor’s manse in Columbia.

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