Blogged

A draft blowing through the White House?

As M and I rode in to work this morning, the announcer on NPR intoned that George Bush would hold his traditional end-of-year presser in the Indian Treaty Room of the White House. The expected main topic was, of course, Iraq.

“Great,” M said of the venue. “The Room of Broken Promises.”

Indeed. Let’s set unintended ironies aside for a moment, though, and listen to the latest dictates of the Decider:

We have an obligation to ensure our military is capable of sustaining this war over the long haul, and performing the many tasks that we ask of them. [...]

I’m inclined to believe that we need to increase the permanent size of both the United States Army and the United States Marines.

Bush then handed off the actual work of policy on raising troop levels to new SecDef Robert Gates, who is currently meeting with military commanders on a “give me the facts tour” in Iraq. This avowed “inclination” from the commander-in-chief, so markedly diffident that it borders on the craven, is not surprising. Everyone outside of the Oval Office has long been aware that the American military is in danger of breaking under the burdens of Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s not a simple matter of numbers and never has been; rather, the concern centers on maintaining an armed force that is fresh and properly trained and equipped - and ready to handle as-yet-undeclared engagements (see Iran, North Korea, Syria, etc.).

So how do you increase the permanent size of American ground forces, anyway? George Bush didn’t utter the D-word, but he’ll be forced by events to publicly own up to the consequences of an open-ended, “long-term global struggle against terrorists.” Half-measures and rearrangements will certainly be attempted and eventually found wanting, but the outcome has already been determined. Once enlistment rules have been further bent as far as is practicable, once already-strict stop-loss retention policies have been toughened to the edge of outrage among military families, once our domestic military reserves - the National Guard - has been strained to the point of exhaustion, our only option will be to admit that the volunteer military is no longer viable.

Not feeling a draft yet? Just wait.

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